First, my apologizes to Ron Rosen for the friendly jibes.

My earlier PVO chart suggests that gold made a bottom a couple of weeks ago.  The dollar might bounce a little higher, but I think we’ve seen its intermediate top as well.  It looks to go lower.  Commodities apparently have made their move.  Gold is acting sluggish, but will probably catch up now.  It looks to me like the double bottom for Gold on April 6 and 17 will probably hold…and if not, we’ll see one more surge down, but with low volume.  The GLD volume has petered out.  Selling pressure has petered out in many of the gold stocks.  Gold Open Interest on Nymex is below 320,000, where it was in January.  And the XAU:Gold and HUI:gold daily charts are putting in MACD upturn crosses, and making flags I interpret as bullish.

The PVO chart I threw up, with the decending volume over months, and the double bottoming happening now, makes me think that we are in for a very good-sized move.  I think what will happen is that the dollar will start to fall, and gold will naturally move up as its reflection while still working off some weekly overbought readings in other currencies.  Then, about three weeks into the move, gold will kick in and move up in all currencies.  We should watch gold and the dollar carefully over the next week or two.

The PVO is bottoming here after many months and suggests that we can go a lot higher.  The MACD has crossed.  Even if gold goes a little lower, the selling pressure is minimal.  Yes, I’m using GLD as a proxy for gold.

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So, while I won’t say we’re going parabolic (we could, but who really knows?), put me in Ron Rosen’s camp for a little while.

Old Lurker